Dynamic Analysis of Multi-dimensional Sustainable Development of Tourist Destinations Based on Dynamic System Modeling

Abstract

In response to the problems of environmental degradation, social pressure and economic imbalance caused by excessive tourism in tourist destinations, this paper takes Juneau, Alaska, USA as the research object and constructs a multi-dimensional dynamic analysis model for sustainable tourism development based on dynamic system modeling technology. The number of tourists, the quality of life of residents, carbon emissions and infrastructure pressure were selected as the core indicators. By constructing the differential dynamic equations of each indicator, based on the actual data of Juno from 2014 to 2023 (such as 1.6 million tourists and 375 million US dollars in tourism revenue in 2023), the key parameters (positive feedback coefficient α=0.0723 for the number of tourists, negative feedback coefficient λ=-0.00503 for the quality of life of residents, etc.) were calibrated to quantify the coupling feedback relationship among the indicators. The results show that the model can effectively predict the dynamic trends of various indicators in the next ten years. The growth of the number of tourists has a significant positive driving effect on carbon emissions (γ=0.46314 t CO₂eq/tourists), and environmental protection expenditure can significantly suppress carbon emissions (δ=0.02647 t CO₂/US dollars). The Juno load threshold is the total infrastructure capacity K=3,358,064 units per year. This model provides quantitative tools and scientific basis for the dynamic regulation of the sustainable development of tourist destinations.